课题类别：广州华商学院校内学术科研项目
课题名称：基于能值改进的广东省对外贸易生态足迹研究
课题批准号：2018HSXS08
项目负责人：杜宇霞
主要成员：李明杰、黄丽霞
一、主要研究成果
共完成2篇论文，分别为：
论文1：Yu-Xia Du Ming-Jie Li*, Jun-Jie Huang.Research on the emissions from industrial products exported from Guangdong Province—an input-output model analysis. PLoS ONE 17(11): e0276300.SCIE，中科院情报分区3区，JCR2Q2.
论文2：杜宇霞.广东省工业品出口隐含碳排放研究 ——基于投入-产出模型分析.中阿科技论坛(中英文)，2022（12）
二、成果内容简介
（1）Research on the emissions from industrial products exported from Guangdong Province—an input-output model analysis.
This study uses an input-output model to analyze the wastewater, waste gas, and solid waste emissions in Guangdong’s industrial exports from 2004 to 2015; the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) is used to analyze the factors influencing such pollution. The results reveal that embodied emissions of waste gas and solid waste in Guangdong’s export trade are increasing, while the increase in wastewater emissions is not apparent. The Loga-rithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) is used to analyze the influencing factors of pollution, spe-cifically, the structural, scale, and technical effects. We discovered that emissions of the top five industries account for about 80% of total emissions and the wastewater emissions’ tech-nical effect has more impact; however, it is difficult for this technical effect in terms of embodied waste gas and solid waste to offset the scale and structural effects’ impacts. Moreover, the trends and factors influencing various industries’ pollution emissions differ. This study proposes that when the government carries out environmental pollution control measures, they should consider the embodied pollution caused by products from foreign trade and focus on treating industries with severe pollution. Simultaneously, the pollution controlling measures of different industries should also vary.
（2）广东省工业品出口隐含碳排放研究 ——基于投入-产出模型分析.
对外贸易带来经济利益的同时，也带来了大量的能源消耗与污染排放。习近平总书记在2020年9月举办的第七十五届联合国大会在上宣布“中国力争于2030年前二氧化碳排放达到峰值、2060年前实现碳中和”。根据《广东省“十四五”节能减排方案》，到2025年，全省单位地区生产总值能源消耗比2020年下降14.0%，能源消费总量得到合理控制。
广东省处于我国改革开放的前沿地段，对外贸易总额一直占全国对外贸易比重的四分之一左右，出口产品中工业制成品占90%以上。工业品出口带来经济利益的同时，其生产过程会产生大量的污染排放，碳排放是污染排放的重点关注对象。而在考虑碳排放的过程中隐含污染尤其应该被关注。如果忽视工业产品对外贸易的隐含碳排放，一方面会高估贸易带来的经济利益，另一方面也不利于解决贸易带来的实际碳排放问题。本文将从“隐含碳”的角度出发，基于投入-产出表，建立出口贸易隐含污染模型，衡量广东省2007-2016年对外贸易完全碳排放量，从而分析广东省工业品对外贸易活动产生的隐含碳排放，揭示对外贸易活动背后隐含的污染，提出相应对策，为广东省推动进一步碳减排、促进经济社会全面发展绿色转型、实现高质量发展进言献策。
